Gavin Newsom noted that without insider information, it is impossible to accurately predict the overthrow of Maduro, war with Iran, and operations against drug cartels. Therefore, he has prohibited state officials from using "confidential and non-public information" to profit in prediction markets. The restrictions also apply to their family members, business partners, and other associated individuals.
According to Polymarket, Newsom's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are 17.2%. This month, Democrats have also repeatedly attempted to restrict prediction markets at the federal level. However, their proposals are still under review in Congress.