The agency's chairman, Michael Selig, stated that their goal is to develop legitimate markets without hindering innovation. The Commission has banned betting on terrorism, murders, and wars, as they do not serve public interests. For instance, the regulator considers a question like "Will the Islamic State carry out an attack in Baghdad resulting in the death of 10+ civilians?" as related to terrorism. However, according to the CFTC, betting on whether the Transportation Security Administration will improve operations at airports is not considered terrorism. At the same time, the commission allowed sports betting, despite demands from other government bodies. The trading volume in prediction markets in 2026 is expected to reach up to $325 billion, according to various estimates. The World Cup, which begins today, may act as a catalyst for this growth. For example, during major sports events, their share on Kalshi reaches 90%.
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CFTC Introduces New Rules for Prediction Markets
The agency's chairman, Michael Selig, stated that their goal is to develop legitimate markets without hindering innovation. The Commission has banned betting on terrorism, murders, and wars, as they d...