If CLARITY is not passed, the CFTC will develop separate rules for cryptocurrencies

Agency head Michael Selig said he would allow time for a vote on the bill. However, if Democrats do not support the bipartisan compromise, he will direct CFTC staff to draft new rules for the industry.

Consideration of the bill will resume in the Senate in September, after the August recess. To bring the bill to a vote, 60 votes are required. However, Republicans have only 53 senators. Accordingly, they need to secure the backing of at least 7 Democrats or independents. The main sticking point is Trump’s cryptocurrency activity. According to Polymarket, the probability of CLARITY being passed in 2026 is only 18%.