The bank’s analysts predict that their rulings could help encourage institutional participation in the short term. However, they emphasize that only legislation will make the framework sustainable in the long term. The crypto industry is relying on piecemeal regulatory measures that could be rolled back in two years. This could happen if Democrats win the presidential election.
As a result, political and legal risk premiums remain in place until comprehensive legislation is passed. According to Polymarket, the probability of Clarity being adopted in 2026 is 3.5%. It could be reconsidered again in 2027, but with a Democratic majority.